# sanguo_factor/metrics.py """批量评估指标:全向量化(RankIC=秩相关逐行),不依赖 alphalens. 所有矩阵约定:pandas DataFrame,index=DatetimeIndex(日),columns=vt_symbol, 值=因子值或前瞻收益,NaN=缺失自动从当日截面剔除。 """ import warnings import numpy as np import pandas as pd from scipy import stats TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR = 244 def _row_pearson(a: np.ndarray, b: np.ndarray, index: pd.Index) -> pd.Series: """逐行 Pearson(输入已是秩),全 NaN/无方差行 → NaN.""" mask = ~(np.isnan(a) | np.isnan(b)) n = mask.sum(axis=1) a0 = np.where(mask, a, np.nan) b0 = np.where(mask, b, np.nan) with warnings.catch_warnings(): warnings.simplefilter("ignore", RuntimeWarning) am = np.nanmean(a0, axis=1, keepdims=True) bm = np.nanmean(b0, axis=1, keepdims=True) ad = np.where(mask, a0 - am, 0.0) bd = np.where(mask, b0 - bm, 0.0) denom = np.sqrt((ad ** 2).sum(axis=1) * (bd ** 2).sum(axis=1)) with np.errstate(invalid="ignore", divide="ignore"): ic = np.where(denom > 0, (ad * bd).sum(axis=1) / denom, np.nan) ic = np.where(n >= 3, ic, np.nan) # <3 只无意义 return pd.Series(ic, index=index) def rank_corr_rows(A: pd.DataFrame, B: pd.DataFrame) -> pd.Series: """逐日 Spearman:先各自按行取秩再逐行 Pearson.""" cols = A.columns.intersection(B.columns) idx = A.index.intersection(B.index) a_vals = A.loc[idx, cols].to_numpy(dtype=float) b_vals = B.loc[idx, cols].to_numpy(dtype=float) # scipy.stats.rankdata ranks NaN positions (NaN sorts last) # pandas keeps NaN as NaN, so we need to mask and restore a_nan = np.isnan(a_vals) b_nan = np.isnan(b_vals) # Fill NaN with large negative value (sorts first, then rankdata puts it last) # But we need it to sort last, so use large positive a_filled = np.where(a_nan, np.inf, a_vals) b_filled = np.where(b_nan, np.inf, b_vals) # scipy.stats.rankdata with axis=1 ranks per row a = stats.rankdata(a_filled, axis=1) b = stats.rankdata(b_filled, axis=1) # Restore NaN at original NaN positions a[a_nan] = np.nan b[b_nan] = np.nan return _row_pearson(a, b, idx) def factor_turnover(F: pd.DataFrame) -> float: """换手率 = 1 - 相邻两日因子秩相关均值.""" if len(F) < 2: return 0.0 # Shift indices to align consecutive days F_next = F.iloc[1:].reset_index(drop=True) F_prev = F.iloc[:-1].reset_index(drop=True) corr = rank_corr_rows(F_next, F_prev).replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan).dropna() return float(1.0 - corr.mean()) if len(corr) else 0.0 def _quantile_mask(F: pd.DataFrame, top: bool) -> pd.DataFrame: """按行把因子值分位选mask(基于升序秩/当日有效数). top=True选最大10%,False选最小10%.""" vals = F.to_numpy(dtype=float) nan_mask = np.isnan(vals) # For descending rank (1=max), rank negative values # scipy.stats.rankdata sorts ascending by default vals_filled = np.where(nan_mask, -np.inf, -vals) # NaN -> -inf (smallest), negate for descending ranks = stats.rankdata(vals_filled, axis=1) # Now ranks are in descending order (1=max), but NaN got rank 1, need to shift # Actually, let me think more carefully: # - pandas rank(axis=1, ascending=False): 1 = max, NaN = NaN # - scipy rankdata on negative values: smallest original gets largest rank # - So -val (largest original) -> smallest rank value = 1 # This is what we want! # But NaN got filled with -inf, which becomes largest, so rank is 1 - wrong! # Need to fill NaN with something that becomes largest rank vals_filled = np.where(nan_mask, np.inf, -vals) # NaN -> +inf (largest after negation) ranks = stats.rankdata(vals_filled, axis=1) # Now: max original -> -max -> min rank = 1 ✓ # NaN -> +inf -> max rank (last) ✓ # Restore NaN at original NaN positions ranks[nan_mask] = np.nan n = (~nan_mask).sum(axis=1) k = np.maximum((n * 0.1).round().astype(int), 1).reshape(-1, 1) if top: mask = (ranks <= k) & ~nan_mask else: # For bottom: n - k + 1 to n # E.g., n=10, k=1: ranks 10 to 10 (last 1) mask = (ranks >= n.reshape(-1, 1) - k + 1) & ~nan_mask return pd.DataFrame(mask, index=F.index, columns=F.columns) def long_short_annual_return(F: pd.DataFrame, R: pd.DataFrame) -> float | None: """多空年化:top10% - bottom10% 等权前瞻日收益均值,复利年化.""" cols = F.columns.intersection(R.columns) idx = F.index.intersection(R.index) f, r = F.loc[idx, cols], R.loc[idx, cols] top = _quantile_mask(f, top=True) bot = _quantile_mask(f, top=False) daily = (r.where(top).mean(axis=1) - r.where(bot).mean(axis=1)).dropna() if daily.empty: return None return float((1.0 + daily.mean()) ** TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR - 1.0) def decile_annual_returns(F: pd.DataFrame, R: pd.DataFrame) -> list[float | None]: """十分组(D1因子最低→D10最高)等权年化收益.""" cols = F.columns.intersection(R.columns) idx = F.index.intersection(R.index) f, r = F.loc[idx, cols], R.loc[idx, cols] vals = f.to_numpy(dtype=float) nan_mask = np.isnan(vals) # Fill NaN with large value (sorts last, gets largest rank) vals_filled = np.where(nan_mask, np.inf, vals) ranks = stats.rankdata(vals_filled, axis=1) # Restore NaN at original positions ranks[nan_mask] = np.nan # Normalize to percentiles n = (~nan_mask).sum(axis=1, keepdims=True) pct = ranks / n out: list[float | None] = [] for d in range(10): sel = (pct > d / 10) & (pct <= (d + 1) / 10) daily = r.where(sel).mean(axis=1).dropna() out.append( float((1.0 + daily.mean()) ** TRADING_DAYS_PER_YEAR - 1.0) if len(daily) else None ) return out def monthly_ic(ic: pd.Series) -> list[dict]: """IC 按月聚合(sparkline/详情图数据).""" s = ic.dropna() if s.empty: return [] g = s.groupby(s.index.to_period("M").to_timestamp()).mean() return [{"month": t.strftime("%Y-%m"), "ic": round(float(v), 6)} for t, v in g.items()] def classify(icir: float | None, t_stat: float | None) -> str: """结论信号灯:|ICIR|>=0.3 且 |t|>=2 有效;否则 |t|>=1.5 观察;其余淘汰.""" if icir is None or t_stat is None: return "eliminated" if abs(icir) >= 0.3 and abs(t_stat) >= 2.0: return "effective" if abs(t_stat) >= 1.5: return "watch" return "eliminated" def _period_stats(ic: pd.Series) -> dict: s = ic.dropna() n = len(s) if n < 2: return {"count": int(n), "ic_mean": None, "ic_std": None, "icir": None, "t_stat": None, "win_rate": None, "monthly_ic": monthly_ic(ic)} m = float(s.mean()) sd = float(s.std()) icir = m / sd if sd > 0 else None t_stat = m / (sd / n ** 0.5) if sd > 0 else None return { "count": int(n), "ic_mean": m, "ic_std": sd, "icir": icir, "t_stat": t_stat, "win_rate": float((s > 0).mean()), "monthly_ic": monthly_ic(ic), } def summarize_factor(F: pd.DataFrame, R1: pd.DataFrame, R5: pd.DataFrame, R10: pd.DataFrame) -> dict: """单因子全指标:三周期 IC 族 + 换手 + 多空 + 十分组 + 结论.""" out: dict = {"turnover": factor_turnover(F)} for p, R in (("1", R1), ("5", R5), ("10", R10)): ic = rank_corr_rows(F, R) stats = _period_stats(ic) stats["ls_annual"] = long_short_annual_return(F, R) stats["deciles"] = decile_annual_returns(F, R) stats["conclusion"] = classify(stats["icir"], stats["t_stat"]) out[p] = stats return out