99 lines
3.9 KiB
Python
99 lines
3.9 KiB
Python
# sanguo_factor/decay.py
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"""衰减判定引擎——流水线 spec §4.2 决议 E/F/C.
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三条件(起步默认+首年校准,数值措辞按 spec):
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① 相对降幅: 滚动 12M IC t 值 < 晋级时 t 值 × RELATIVE_DROP
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(各因子晋级基准不同,一刀切绝对值不公平);
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② 绝对地板: 同时 t < ABSOLUTE_FLOOR(防「从很强掉到还算强」也叫衰减);
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③ 连续性: 连续 CONSECUTIVE_MONTHS 个月满足①②才开告警(state=alert);
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第 1~2 个月标黄预警(state=yellow)——月度 IC 一年 12 个点,单月噪声大.
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成熟度门(决议 E): promotion_t 为 None(未晋级)→不判定(state=not_promoted).
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集体水位(决议 C): 全体已晋级因子当月 t 中位数 < COLLECTIVE_MEDIAN_FLOOR
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→ is_collective_decay=True——消费方(月度批评)据此出研判卡数据,
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不开降权告警,因子权重冻结不动.阈值只负责叫人,处置永远人选.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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from dataclasses import dataclass
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from statistics import median
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RELATIVE_DROP = 0.5 # 起步默认,首年校准(决议 F)
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ABSOLUTE_FLOOR = 2.0
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CONSECUTIVE_MONTHS = 3 # 第 3 个连续月开告警
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COLLECTIVE_MEDIAN_FLOOR = 1.0 # 集体水位地板,起步默认首年校准(决议 C)
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@dataclass(frozen=True)
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class DecayVerdict:
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factor: str
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state: str # ok|yellow|alert|not_promoted|no_data
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months_consecutive: int # 尾部连续满足①②的月数(含当月)
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current_t: float | None
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promotion_t: float | None
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ratio: float | None # current_t/promotion_t
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def _next_month(month: str) -> str:
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"""'2026-07' → '2026-08'(连续性判定用)."""
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y, m = int(month[:4]), int(month[5:7])
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y, m = (y + 1, 1) if m == 12 else (y, m + 1)
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return f"{y:04d}-{m:02d}"
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def _prev_month(month: str) -> str:
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"""'2026-08' → '2026-07'."""
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y, m = int(month[:4]), int(month[5:7])
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y, m = (y - 1, 12) if m == 1 else (y, m - 1)
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return f"{y:04d}-{m:02d}"
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def _last_t(points: list[dict]) -> float | None:
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for p in reversed(points):
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if p.get("t") is not None:
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return float(p["t"])
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return None
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def judge_factor(monthly_points: list[dict], promotion_t: float | None,
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factor: str = "") -> DecayVerdict:
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"""monthly_points: [{"month": "2026-05", "t": 3.1}, ...] 按月升序,t 可为 None(缺).
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从序列尾部往回数「日历月连续且满足①②」的月数;断月/不满足即停.
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"""
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if promotion_t is None:
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return DecayVerdict(factor, "not_promoted", 0,
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_last_t(monthly_points), None, None)
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points = [p for p in monthly_points if p.get("t") is not None]
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if not points:
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return DecayVerdict(factor, "no_data", 0, None, promotion_t, None)
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current_t = float(points[-1]["t"])
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ratio = current_t / promotion_t if promotion_t else None
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streak = 0
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for i in range(len(points) - 1, -1, -1):
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p = points[i]
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weak = p["t"] < promotion_t * RELATIVE_DROP and p["t"] < ABSOLUTE_FLOOR
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if not weak:
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break
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if streak > 0:
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later = points[i + 1] # 已计入 streak 的上一个(更晚)点
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if later["month"] != _next_month(p["month"]):
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break # 断月:序列不日历连续
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streak += 1
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state = "ok"
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if streak >= CONSECUTIVE_MONTHS:
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state = "alert"
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elif streak > 0:
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state = "yellow"
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return DecayVerdict(factor, state, streak, current_t, promotion_t, ratio)
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def collective_level(current_ts: list[float]) -> dict:
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"""集体水位:当月全体已晋级因子 t 的中位数(决议 C).空表不报警."""
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if not current_ts:
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return {"median": None, "floor": COLLECTIVE_MEDIAN_FLOOR,
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"is_collective_decay": False, "n": 0}
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med = median(current_ts)
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return {"median": med, "floor": COLLECTIVE_MEDIAN_FLOOR,
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"is_collective_decay": med < COLLECTIVE_MEDIAN_FLOOR,
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"n": len(current_ts)}
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